Global Jet Capital released its fifth annual Business Jet Market Forecast in October 2025, timed to coincide with the National Business Aviation Association convention in Las Vegas — the industry's most consequential annual gathering. The Danbury, Connecticut-based aircraft financing firm projects $206 billion in total transaction volume across new and pre-owned business jet markets through 2029, representing a 3.9% average annualized growth rate. For 2025 specifically, the forecast calls for an 8.3% increase in combined unit volume and a 6.0% rise in dollar volume, with pre-owned transactions outpacing new deliveries at +9.5% unit growth versus +4.4% for new aircraft. The methodology is an econometric top-down transaction model that balances quantitative outputs against observed market conditions — an approach that gives the forecast credibility with aircraft financiers, fleet planners, and operators evaluating acquisition timing.
The near-term surge in both market segments reflects a supply chain and production narrative that has dominated business aviation since the COVID-era demand spike. OEM backlogs, which swelled dramatically between 2021 and 2023 due to simultaneous labor shortages and record order books, are now gradually resolving. That resolution is unlocking new deliveries at a measured pace while simultaneously releasing pre-owned inventory as operators trading up or restructuring fleets bring aircraft to market. The pre-owned sector's 9.5% projected unit growth in 2025 follows a 2024 recovery period, suggesting the market is normalizing rather than overheating — a distinction relevant to flight departments weighing whether current aircraft valuations represent a buying opportunity or a pricing peak. Pre-owned aircraft historically constitute nearly 80% of transaction units, yet new jets account for roughly 55% of dollar volume, underscoring the pricing disparity between segments that operators and their finance departments must account for in capital planning.
Heavy long-range jets represent the strongest demand category across the five-year horizon, with projected growth of 5.3% annually in new deliveries and 6.1% in pre-owned transactions. This concentration of demand at the large-cabin end of the market aligns with structural shifts in how corporations and high-net-worth individuals use business aircraft — international missions, extended-range routing to avoid geopolitical airspace restrictions, and the operational flexibility that ultra-long-range platforms provide. For pilots flying or transitioning into large-cabin type ratings, the forecast implies sustained demand for those qualifications over the coming years. It also signals that OEMs including Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Dassault will continue to prioritize high-margin, large-cabin production, potentially compressing availability for operators seeking those aircraft off the primary market.
Geographically, North America remains the dominant market at 73.8% of total transactions — down slightly from 76.3% in the prior year's forecast — a drift that reflects incremental growth in international demand rather than any domestic softening. Latin America has overtaken Europe as the second-largest pre-owned market, a development with operational implications for charter and fractional operators serving that region, including airspace planning, maintenance infrastructure, and regulatory alignment across jurisdictions. Europe remains significant for new jet demand, where corporate governance requirements and sustainability reporting are beginning to intersect with fleet renewal decisions. Assumptions underpinning the entire forecast are notably optimistic in their baseline — no major recession, no significant geopolitical disruption — which operators should weigh carefully given the macroeconomic and political volatility that has characterized the mid-2020s. The forecast is best interpreted as a directional guide for capital allocation rather than a precision transaction count, but its scale and methodology make it the most widely referenced planning document in business aviation finance.