Honeywell Aerospace's 34th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, released October 13, 2025, at NBAA-BACE in Las Vegas, projects a record 8,500 new business jet deliveries between 2026 and 2035, representing a total market value of $283 billion — the highest projection in the report's three-decade history. The forecast reflects an average annual growth rate of approximately 3%, with 2025 expected to close at roughly 740 deliveries before a projected 5% uptick in 2026 marks the beginning of a sustained expansion cycle. The report draws on survey data from hundreds of global operators, 91% of whom expect to fly as much or more in 2026 as they did in 2025, and 20% of whom currently hold at least one aircraft on firm order — up from 17% the prior year. These figures suggest that operator confidence, not speculative forecasting, is the primary engine behind the projections.
North America continues to dominate the business aviation landscape by a wide margin, accounting for approximately 70% of projected deliveries over the near term while representing 62% of the existing global fleet. Demand drivers cited in the report include persistent utilization rates despite macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, expanded fractional ownership programs such as those operated by NetJets, and structural fiscal incentives including the reinstatement of 100% bonus depreciation under U.S. tax law — a provision that directly lowers the after-tax cost of aircraft acquisition for Part 91 and Part 91K operators. Large-cabin and ultra-long-range aircraft are expected to command the largest share of spending, comprising roughly two-thirds of total market value, which aligns with the survey finding that 82% of operators rank range and performance as their top purchase priority.
For working pilots and flight departments, the implications of this forecast extend well beyond sales statistics. A sustained decade-long expansion in deliveries will place meaningful pressure on an already constrained pilot workforce, particularly at the fractional and charter level where aircraft-on-order ratios are climbing. Operators absorbing new iron will require trained crews, and with type rating pipelines for large-cabin jets — Gulfstreams, Bombardier Globals, Dassault Falcons — already running near capacity at major training centers, scheduling lead times for simulator training are likely to extend further. Chief pilots and director-of-aviation roles at corporate flight departments should anticipate competition for experienced captains intensifying as fleet growth outpaces the supply of qualified PIC candidates.
The Honeywell data also connects to a broader structural realignment in commercial aviation that has been underway since the pandemic. Business aviation absorbed a significant cohort of travelers who permanently shifted away from commercial airlines, and the sustained operator confidence reflected in this survey suggests that migration has not reversed. Cirium's parallel forecast — projecting 18,000 business jet deliveries through 2045 — corroborates the long arc of this trend. Manufacturers including Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Textron Aviation have been managing order backlogs stretching two to four years, and a 3% annual growth rate, if realized, will sustain those backlogs while incentivizing additional production capacity investment. Maintenance, avionics upgrade cycles, and MRO capacity will all feel the downstream effects of a growing installed fleet, making the Honeywell forecast relevant not just to operators placing orders but to every stakeholder in the business aviation ecosystem.