IATA: SAF Production Volumes Still Disappointing

SAF production in 2026 remains critically undersized relative to aviation's decarbonization commitments, with IATA's latest report placing global output at just 2.4 million tonnes — a figure representing a mere 0.8% of total aviation fuel consumption. IATA Director General Willie Walsh characterized the year as "another disappointing" one, citing misaligned government policy sequencing and a lack of meaningful investment from oil companies as the principal structural barriers. The organization's analysis is particularly sobering regarding next-generation e-SAF, the power-to-liquid pathway that converts green hydrogen, captured CO2, and water into jet fuel. Regulatory mandates in the EU and UK collectively call for approximately 0.6 million tonnes of e-SAF production by 2030, yet current global capacity — both operating and under construction — stands at only 0.02 million tonnes, with a single operational production site worldwide. IATA calculates that roughly 20 commercial-scale refineries would be required to close that gap, and no new final investment decisions for e-SAF facilities have been made in the past twelve months.

Against that backdrop, SAF developer Twelve's formal inauguration of AirPlant One in Moses Lake, Washington carries genuine technical significance, even if its output is modest. The facility is the first commercial refinery in the United States producing e-SAF via the power-to-liquid pathway, using renewable electricity to capture atmospheric CO2, combine it with water, and synthesize hydrocarbon fuel molecules that meet ASTM International certification standards for Jet-A. Built over three years with backing from Alaska Airlines and Microsoft, AirPlant One has a current capacity of 50,000 gallons per year — a volume that is operationally negligible at scale but serves as proof-of-concept for a production model that is independent of agricultural feedstock limitations, upstream extraction, and commodity price volatility. Because the fuel is fully ASTM-certified, it requires no changes to aircraft, engines, or fueling infrastructure and blends freely with conventional Jet-A, eliminating any operational complexity for pilots or maintenance organizations.

For working pilots and aviation operators, the SAF production gap has direct implications that extend beyond environmental optics. Airlines and business aviation operators with Scope 1 and Scope 3 emissions commitments — including those operating under CORSIA obligations or European Union Emissions Trading System requirements — face growing exposure to compliance costs as regulatory timelines approach but SAF supply remains constrained. Corporate flight departments under Part 91 or 91K, and charter operators under Part 135, increasingly encounter SAF procurement questions from sustainability-conscious clients and parent corporations. With HEFA-based SAF — the dominant current variety, derived from used cooking oils and fats — already approaching feedstock limits, the broader industry cannot simply scale existing production methods to meet 2030 or 2050 targets. The structural feedstock ceiling that IATA identifies means the e-SAF pathway, despite its current high cost and minimal output, represents the only viable long-term route to meaningful production volumes.

Walsh's additional commentary linking the current petroleum supply disruption — stemming from the U.S. and Israel's conflict with Iran and associated fuel price spikes — to the urgency of SAF development is notable for operators already absorbing elevated Jet-A costs. His argument frames SAF not only as a climate instrument but as an energy security hedge, an appeal that has historically resonated more broadly across political contexts than emissions reduction arguments alone. Twelve's model, anchored to long-term power contracts rather than crude oil markets or OPEC supply decisions, illustrates precisely this logic: a production cost structure that is structurally decoupled from the geopolitical volatility currently pressuring conventional fuel prices. For fleet operators and fuel managers, that pricing architecture — once it achieves commercial scale — represents a potential hedge against the kind of supply-chain disruptions now affecting Pacific Northwest aviation fuel availability, the exact regional gap AirPlant One was cited as directly addressing.

The broader trend reflected in both the IATA report and the Twelve announcement is that the SAF transition is proceeding on a timeline that is structurally misaligned with its regulatory and environmental deadlines. The gap between mandate and production infrastructure is widening, not closing, and the absence of new final investment decisions in e-SAF facilities over the past year signals that capital markets have not yet been sufficiently incentivized to commit at the scale required. For aviation professionals, this means SAF availability, pricing, and compliance obligations will remain operationally and financially relevant concerns throughout the next decade, with the industry watching whether facilities like AirPlant One can demonstrate the economics needed to catalyze the larger capital commitments that IATA identifies as essential. Twelve's stated plan to scale subsequent facilities to tens of millions of gallons annually — including a European site — will be a key data point in whether the power-to-liquid pathway moves from demonstration to deployment at meaningful volume.